Higher ACA Marketplace Premiums in 2026: What Shoppers Can Do During Open Enrollment
Premiums are higher as open enrollment begins
If you logged onto an Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace on Nov. 1—the first day of 2026 open enrollment—you may have noticed that premiums look significantly higher than in recent years. A key reason is that current rates are built on the assumption that Americans are no longer eligible for enhanced premium tax credits.
Those expanded credits were first introduced by the Biden-era American Rescue Plan. They increased the amount of the previous subsidy and removed the income cap that limited eligibility. The enhanced credits are commonly credited with making Obamacare plans cheaper, doubling signups, and driving the uninsured rate to record lows.
Why the tax credits are in limbo
The enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025, and their possible expiration is a major reason premiums are spiking. The issue has also become a political flashpoint connected to the ongoing government shutdown. Congressional Democrats say they will not vote to reopen the government without action on subsidies and other health care issues. GOP leaders say they will not negotiate on health care reform while the government is shut down.
As Gary Jacobs, executive director of government relations and public policy at VillageMD, put it: “nobody knows” when or whether the two sides will work through the issue.
What’s driving the sticker shock
For people who need to buy an ACA plan, premiums could be much higher this year because subsidies received in the past may be reduced. Insurers are also charging more to account for anticipated increased risk if younger, healthier people leave the marketplace without the assistance of enhanced tax credits. If that happens, the remaining pool of enrollees would be riskier on average, which can push costs higher.
Research from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities found that without enhanced premium tax credits, an average ACA enrollee would see out-of-pocket premiums more than double, increasing by $1,000 a year. The same research noted that people in their sixties with middle incomes could pay $25,000 more.
Rates could change quickly if Congress extends subsidies
While shoppers are currently seeing higher prices, those prices could decrease dramatically if the enhanced tax credits are extended. Most insurers submitted two sets of rates to state regulators this year—one set that accounts for enhanced tax credits and another that assumes the credits expire—so marketplaces could effectively “flip a switch” if policy changes.
If Congress acts during open enrollment, it could take state and federal marketplaces anywhere from a couple of days to a couple of weeks to reflect the changes, according to Mona Shah, senior director of policy and strategy at Community Catalyst.
Key open enrollment dates to remember
Open enrollment runs from Nov. 1 to Jan. 15 in most states. However, timing affects when coverage begins:
Enroll by Dec. 15 to ensure coverage starts on Jan. 1.
If you enroll between Dec. 16 and Jan. 15, coverage starts Feb. 1, 2026.
Even for people considering waiting in hopes that Congress extends subsidies, the deadline matters. Waiting too long could mean losing the chance to secure coverage for 2026.
Should you enroll now or wait?
The main argument for waiting is straightforward: Congress might extend the enhanced premium tax credits, potentially making plans more affordable. But the uncertainty cuts both ways. There is no clear timeline for action, and missing the final enrollment deadline would mean going without marketplace coverage.
Shah said her organization is advising people to continue checking the marketplace and reviewing options: “We’re recommending that people still go online and still see what their options are.” The idea is to understand what you would pay if the expanded tax credits do not return, while staying prepared to act if the situation changes.
Practical steps shoppers can take right now
Given the uncertainty around subsidies and the possibility that rates could change during open enrollment, shoppers may want to focus on preparation and flexibility. Several steps were highlighted as especially important this year.
Window-shop before you enroll. Even if you plan to wait, reviewing plans early can help you understand the price differences and what coverage is available.
Update your information. Proactively update income, household, and personal details. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” eliminated the cap on premium tax credit repayments, meaning you must pay back all excess funds you receive if you underestimate your annual projected income.
Know that you can switch plans during open enrollment. If you enroll and Congress later changes subsidies, you can move from one plan to another during the open enrollment window. Outside of open enrollment, switching generally requires qualifying for a special enrollment period.
Could subsidies be applied retroactively?
Another question for shoppers is whether Congress could extend subsidies in a way that helps people who already enrolled at higher prices. Retroactive help has happened before. The American Rescue Plan Act was signed into law in March 2021, but it made enhanced premium tax credits effective for all of that tax year and the next.
Still, there is no certainty that the same approach would be used again. Stacey B. Lee, a health care law professor at Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, noted that “there's no guarantee that happens this time.”
Understanding the marketplace landscape
For those shopping this season, the marketplace remains a large and varied environment. There are 62 insurers offering health plans across state and federal exchanges. Familiarizing yourself with available options can help you avoid surprises and identify coverage that fits your budget, especially in a year when pricing may shift depending on federal action.
Bottom line
Many shoppers are seeing higher ACA premiums at the start of 2026 open enrollment because current pricing assumes enhanced premium tax credits will expire. The political standoff tied to the government shutdown has left the outcome unclear, and consumers face a difficult decision: wait and hope for lower premiums, or enroll to avoid missing coverage deadlines.
In this environment, the most practical approach is to compare plans early, keep personal and income information up to date, and track key enrollment dates. If subsidies are extended, marketplaces may be able to adjust pricing relatively quickly, and enrollees can still switch plans during open enrollment.